Volume 267, June 2025, 114591Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Highlights•

Wastewater surveillance offers insights into disease transmission across weather patterns.

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Temperature positively influenced Vibrio cholerae and SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater.

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Pre-monsoon was linked to higher Vibrio cholerae and SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater.

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Pre-monsoon was linked to lower Salmonella Typhi and rotavirus in wastewater.

AbstractBackground

Seasonal meteorological variations influence the spread of infectious diseases. Wastewater surveillance helps understanding pathogen transmission dynamics, particularly in urban areas of climate-vulnerable countries like Bangladesh.

Methods

We analysed 54 weeks of wastewater surveillance, clinical surveillance, and meteorological data from Dhaka, Bangladesh. Samples from 11 sites were tested for Vibrio cholerae (V. cholerae), SARS-CoV-2, Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi), and Group A rotavirus. Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance data were sourced from icddr,b, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Regression models adjusted for site and time variations were used for statistical analysis.

Results

Proportion of confirmed cholera cases among the diarrhoeal disease surveillance recruits were highest during post-monsoon (coef: 2.53; 95 % CI: 0.41 to 4.67; p = 0.029). V. cholerae log10 concentrations in wastewater were positively associated with pre-monsoon (coef: 0.93; 95 % CI: 0.26 to 1.58; p = 0.010), while SARS-CoV-2 peaked during monsoon (coef: 1.85; 95 % CI: 0.96 to 2.73; p < 0.001). S. Typhi and rotavirus log10 concentrations showed negative associations with pre-monsoon (coef: −0.96; 95 % CI: −1.68 to −0.27; p = 0.011, and −0.84; 95 % CI: −1.17 to −0.50; p < 0.001, respectively). Temperature positively influenced log10 concentrations of V. cholerae (adj. coef: 0.09; 95 % CI: 0.02 to 0.15; p = 0.014) and SARS-CoV-2 (adj. coef: 0.19; 95 % CI: 0.10 to 0.27; p < 0.001), but negatively associated with rotavirus (adj. coef: −0.06; 95 % CI: −0.10 to −0.03; p < 0.001). Similar associations were found between pathogen-positive samples and temperature.

Conclusion

Our study shows that seasonal, and meteorological factors (particularly temperature) influence the patterns and abundance of pathogens in wastewater and help in understanding disease transmission across different weather patterns.

Graphical abstractDownload: Download high-res image (565KB)Download: Download full-size imageKeywords

Wastewater surveillance

Meteorological factors

Seasonal variations

Pathogen dynamics

Infectious agents

AbbreviationsBMD

(Bangladesh Meteorological Department)

DDSS

(Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance System)

DNCC

(Dhaka North City Corporation)

DSCC

(Dhaka South City Corporation)

DWASA

(Dhaka Water Supply & Sewerage Authority)

gc/L

(Genome Copy per Liter)

GIS

(Geographic Information System)

icddr,b

(International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh)

IPCC

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

LMICs

(low- and middle-income countries)

qPCR

(Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction)

S. Typhi

(Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhi)

SARS-CoV-2

(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2)

V. cholerae

(Vibrio cholerae)

WS

(Wastewater surveillance)

WHO

(World Health Organization)

© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.