Cannabis is among the most commonly used substances by U.S. adolescents, with 37 % of 12th graders and 23 % of 10th graders reporting use (Miech et al., 2024). Evidence is nuanced, but generally suggests cognitive deficits in various domains (e.g., learning, memory, executive function) may precede or result from adolescent (10–19 years old) cannabis use (Meier et al., 2024, Castellanos-Ryan et al., 2017). Cognitive performance may influence adolescents’ learning and beliefs about cannabis and its effects (“expectancies”), influencing initiation. Identifying how early adolescent cognitive function relates to later cannabis use can clarify causal pathways and inform early prevention. Given the high prevalence of polysubstance use among U.S. youth, it is also critical to examine shared and distinct factors contributing to alcohol, tobacco, or cannabis use.

Prior work using the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD Study®) examined neurocognitive performance at ages 9–10 years identifying a four factor structure—general ability, executive function, learning and memory, and visuospatial functioning, and found prospective associations between some of these factors and tobacco or alcohol use by ages 13–14 years (Jones et al., 2024). Specifically, higher performance in general ability was associated with risk for alcohol use and higher performance in visuospatial reasoning was protective for tobacco use. This prior work did not examine cannabis use; however, a separate study found lower cognitive performance (e.g., short term or working memory) may confer risk for earlier cannabis initiation (Castellanos-Ryan et al., 2017, Cavalli et al., 2023). This study also found higher verbal intelligence increased risk for early cannabis use (Castellanos-Ryan et al., 2017). Thus, evidence suggests distinct neurocognitive factors may contribute to adolescent tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis initiation.

Neurocognitive performance may contribute to initiation of substance use by influencing expectancy development (Cooper et al., 2016). Adolescents’ expectancies or beliefs about the effects of substances are known contributors to initiation and use (Creamer et al., 2018, Ibáñez et al., 2015). These expectancies may be formed by differing social contexts. For instance, tobacco is heavily stigmatized and subject to marketing and advertising restrictions, whereas alcohol is more likely to be portrayed positively in socially sanctioned settings, such as sporting and entertainment venues (Radesky et al., 2020). Cognitive performance may shape how adolescents internalize such messages. Adolescents with stronger cognitive abilities (e.g., inhibitory control, preplanning) may be more likely to view alcohol as socially normative and adopt positive use expectancies (e.g., social cohesion), increasing the likelihood of use (Meisel et al., 2015). Similarly, cognitively advanced adolescents may be susceptible to pro-cannabis messaging, particularly in the absence of counter-messaging, contributing to greater intent to use (Cui et al., 2025). Alternatively, these same adolescents may be more likely to adopt negative expectancies about tobacco due to strong public health messaging regarding its risks and their capacity to weigh long-term consequences (Emory et al., 2015).

This study builds on prior work using the ABCD Study® by 1) extending the examination of early cognitive factors to cannabis use, and 2) examining whether positive and negative use expectancies mediate associations between cognitive factors and early cannabis, alcohol, or tobacco use. We aimed to advance understanding of the cognitive and psychosocial mechanisms underlying early initiation of substance use among U.S. adolescents.