The causal loop diagram (Fig. 2) translates the narrative presented above into a systems map of the 2011–2012 Somalia famine. The diagram highlights the interconnected ecological, social, economic, and political processes that shaped famine dynamics, revealing how drought, rainfall variability, water scarcity, crop failure, and livestock losses interacted with conflict, displacement, humanitarian assistance, remittances, and social capital. By making these relationships explicit, the CLD illustrates the feedback structures through which environmental shocks were amplified by social and political conditions, ultimately affecting food availability, food access, malnutrition, and mortality. At the same time, it highlights the humanitarian and social support mechanisms such as food aid, cash transfers, remittances, and social capital that acted to mitigate rising mortality and stabilize the system, although their effectiveness was often constrained by conflict, governance challenges, and restrictions on aid delivery.

Integrated causal loop diagram (CLD) of famine dynamics showing reinforcing (R) and balancing (B) feedback loops. The diagram illustrates how interacting social, ecological, economic, and political processes generate systemic pressure leading to food insecurity and increased mortality. Reinforcing loops (R1–R6) (in blue) amplify famine outcomes. Balancing loops (B1–B4) (in green) represent coping and stabilizing mechanisms

The analysis identifies the key reinforcing feedback loops that generated pressure within the famine system and created holds by constraining its capacity to recover as well as the balancing feedback loops that enabled the system to rebalance. The Somalia famine system was driven by six interconnected reinforcing feedback loops (R1–R6) that collectively amplify food insecurity and mortality (see Supplementary Material Table 1M). The Climate–Agriculture–Mortality loop (R1) shows how drought reduced agricultural and livestock productivity, lowering food availability and increasing malnutrition and mortality, which further weakened labour capacity and reduced production. The Global Price Shock and Import Dependency loop (R2) demonstrates how rising global food prices reduced imports and increased local prices, limiting food access and worsening malnutrition and mortality, with broader geopolitical instability further reinforcing these pressures. The Health System Collapse loop (R3) captures how weak healthcare infrastructure increased disease incidence and mortality, which in turn further degraded health system capacity. The Migration–Remittance–Food Access loop (R4) shows how food insecurity drove migration, reducing social capital and remittances, thereby lowering household purchasing power and further restricting food access. The Conflict–Aid Disruption loop (R5) highlights how conflict and governance constraints disrupted humanitarian assistance through aid diversion and restricted mobility, increasing malnutrition and mortality and reinforcing instability. Finally, the Mobility and Access Constraint loop (R6) illustrates how conflict restricted movement and migration, limiting both access to food and coping options, thereby further deepening malnutrition and preventing system recovery.

The Somalia famine system included four key balancing feedback loops that attempted to counteract and rebalance rising food insecurity and mortality, although their effectiveness was often limited (see Supplementary Material Table 2). The Migration and Asset Liquidation loop (B1) operated when households responded to reduced food access by migrating or selling livestock, temporarily increasing purchasing power and providing short-term relief from food insecurity, but without addressing underlying vulnerabilities. The Humanitarian Food Aid loop (B2) was intended to stabilize the system by increasing food aid, thereby improving food availability and reducing malnutrition and mortality; however, its impact was significantly constrained by conflict and restrictions such as Al-Shabaab activity and OFAC regulations. The Informal Financial Support loop (B3) functioned through diaspora remittances and hawala-based cash transfers, which increased household purchasing power and improved food access, offering a partial but uneven stabilizing effect on nutrition outcomes. Finally, the Environmental and Market Recovery loop (B4) reflect exogenous improvements such as increased rainfall and lower global food prices, which enhanced food availability, reduced prices, and improved access to food, leading to decline in malnutrition and mortality.

Three types of system archetypes were found within the system. First, Escalation: a situation where two or more entities engage in actions that intensify in response to each other (Fig. 3a) The CLD highlights two balancing loops (B1 and B2) in which actions taken by different actors inadvertently decrease flow of food aid. In B1, Al Shabab increases restrictions on humanitarian agencies to strengthen control over food aid, reducing aid flows to affected populations and worsening food insecurity. In B2, OFAC sanctions increase the legal and reputational risks faced by humanitarian organizations, leading to reduced humanitarian assistance and further decline in flow of food aid. These dynamics create a vicious cycle in which attempts by both Al Shabab and external actors to control aid flows unintentionally intensify food insecurity, reduce the effectiveness of humanitarian response, and deepen the famine. Second, Fixes that fail: a situation where a solution is applied to a problem, providing temporary relief but ultimately leading to unintended consequences that exacerbate the original issue (Fig. 3b). The causal loop diagram illustrates a balancing feedback loop (B1) in which food aid initially reduces famine mortality. However, delays caused by OFAC restrictions and conflict with Al Shabab reduce the flow of food aid over time, increasing reliance on cash transfers. Cash transfers enable households to purchase food, helping to lower mortality rates despite declining aid. Third, Shifting the burden: a situation where a problem is addressed with a short-term solution that alleviates symptoms but fails to address the underlying issue (Fig. 3c). The causal loop diagram illustrates two balancing loops (B1 and B2) and one reinforcing loop (R1). In the short term, increased food aid reduces mortality (B1), while community remittances also help lower mortality when humanitarian assistance is constrained (B2). However, food aid increases dependence on humanitarian assistance, creating a reinforcing loop (R1) that strengthens reliance on external support. As dependence grows, long-term resilience is weakened, leaving underlying drivers of food insecurity unresolved.

System archetypes in Somalia. a Escalation: a situation where two or more entities engage in actions that intensify in response to each other. b Fixes that fail: a situation where a solution is applied to a problem, providing temporary relief but ultimately leading to unintended consequences that exacerbate the original issue. c Shifting the burden: a situation where a problem is addressed with a short-term solution that alleviates symptoms but fails to address the underlying issue