This paper examines the impact of individualized funding for disability supports on autism diagnoses. We identify these effects using the staggered roll out of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), which provides individualized funding for non-medical disability interventions. We find compelling evidence that the introduction of the NDIS has led to a 32 % increase in reported autism prevalence and accounts for 47 % of new diagnoses since the introduction of the scheme. We find a significant reduction in diagnoses from government subsided healthcare professionals, accompanied by an increase in diagnoses from disability service providers. A lower threshold for autism recognition appears more consistent with our results than catch-up in historically underdiagnosed groups.

Autism

ASD

Autism spectrum disorder

Disability

Diagnoses

Government supports

National disability insurance scheme

NDIS

Neurodiversity

Prevalence

H51

H53

I38

© 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.