Background Dengue outbreaks have become a severe threat to Bangladesh as the infections and mortality numbers are skyrocketing in recent years. Favorable environmental and anthropogenic conditions have established the capital of Bangladesh, Dhaka city as the epicenter of dengue outbreak. Studies have showed that climate change induced extreme weather events are exacerbating Aedes mosquito breeding and dengue virus transmission conditions.

Methodology/Principal Findings In this study, short-term (0-6 weeks) associations of maximum temperature and heatwave days on dengue cases in Dhaka city were examined through Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) methodology for weekly measurement of 2016-2024, taking into account relative humidity, cumulative rainfall, seasonality and hospital closure effect. Two separate negative binomial models were constructed. The maximum temperature model rendered an overall inverted U-shaped association, where the maximum temperature range of 31.5-33.2°C showed a sustained elevated dengue risk, with highest risk estimate at 33.2°C [relative risk (RR): 1.186, 95% CI: 1.002, 1.403]. Whereas, results of weekly heatwave days showed an overall protective effect (RR<1) for dengue cases. The lowest risk of infection was found at 3 heatwave days per week, with RR 0.275 (95% CI: 0.178, 0.423). Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted for both models to evaluate their robustness. Lastly, the optimized models were analyzed under three distinct sub-periods, to capture the association of exposure variables with predominant circulating serotypes.

Conclusions/Significance The findings of the study aim to support public health policymakers and healthcare authorities in designing and implementing effective vector control interventions under emerging climatic emergencies.

Author Summary Dengue disease is one of the most buringing issue in Bangladesh in recent years. This vector-borne disease is inherently influenced by climatic variables, i.e., temperature, rainfall, humidity, etc. Moreover, these relations are complex and non-linearly associated. Due to shift in climatic conditions, the occurance of extreme weather events are becoming frequent, with increased magnitude and longer duration. In this study, the nonlinear and delayed association of dengue infections due to the exposure of extreme temperature events were assessed in climate-change vulnerable Dhaka city. To do this, a statistical method was used, called distributed lag nonlinear methodology (DLNM). The results showed that dengue infections had an inverted U-shaped (parabolic) relationship with maximum temperature, while compared to mean maximum temperature, and a suppressive association with heatwaves relative to days without heatwaves. The findings aim to work as an early warning system, and support to policymakes and healthcare authorities to tackle the dengue surge in the changing climate.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

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The protocol of this study was approved by the Committee for Advanced Studies & Research (CASR), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET). The study used national surveillance data, which neither involved human participants nor collected personally identifiable information.

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