Abstract

Food costs are more significantly impacted by climate change as countries grow. It is well known that climate change has an impact on the productivity of most agricultural goods, but it is unclear how specifically it will affect food costs. The present research explores how the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a widely used climate indicator, affects food prices around the world. This is achieved by applying a robust bivariate Hurst exponent (robust bHe). The research creates a color map of this coefficient using a window-sliding technique over various intervals of time, displaying an illustration that changes overtime.

Additionally, the NAO index and global food prices are examined for causal connections using variable-lag transfer entropy using a window-sliding technique. The results show that notable rises in a number of international food prices for long as well as short periods are associated with significant increases in the NAO index. Furthermore, the causative function of the NAO index in influencing global food costs is confirmed by variable-lag transfer entropy.

Is highly recommended as it directly connects the research to actionable outcomes for policymakers and the overarching goal of sustainability and food security. This study provides the first direct evidence of a robust, long-range cross-correlation and causal link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and key global food prices. It introduces a novel, robust methodological framework to visualize this time-varying relationship, offering a critical tool for policymakers and forecasting models.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Not Applicable

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

ANY ONE

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Not Applicable

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

Not Applicable

I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Not Applicable

Data Availability Statement

the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index data are publicly available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml. The final curated dataset supporting the findings of this study is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

List of abreviation(NAO)North Atlantic Oscillation(ENSO)Niño-Southern Oscillation(ESG)Environmental, Social, and Governance(covid-19)Cronavirus 2019(bHe)Bivariate Hurst Exponent(NOAA)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(EVT)Extreme Value Theory(ADF)Augmented Dickey-Fuller(KPSS)Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin(JB)Jarque-Bera(R/S)Rescaled range(VLTE)Variable-Lag Transfer Entropy(AR (1)Autoregressive)(AR-NAO)Autoregressive augmented with the NAO index(RMSE)Root Mean Square Error(SDGs)Sustainable Development Goals(VAR)Vector Autoregression(fGn)Fractional Gaussian Noise(GDP)Gross Domestic Product(VAR)Vector Autoregression(VARFIMA)Vector Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average(GHG)Greenhouse Gas(i.i.d.)Independent and Identically Distributed.